By ONWUASOANYA FCC JONES
One does not need to be a political pundit to concede that with the present state of things as regards to the Imo governorship election, betting on any of the opposition candidates winning the November 11th election is like betting on Enyimba United Football club defeating Manchester City in a cup match. It is not impossible, but it would amount to a miraculous upset. However, when Enyimba United has its ranks depleted by defections, inefficient management team and poor tactics, it becomes almost impossible. But, because in politics as in football, upsets do happen, we can still give the Imo opposition, as presently constituted, a chance of winning, based solely on some luck, rather than anything else.
No matter how much we want to dislike Governor Hope Uzodimma, we must concede that he remains the most experienced politician in Imo State of today and by Nigeria's political standards, you can't rate him above many people on the field. He is a talisman of the game. To defeat such a man, especially, when he is an incumbent, you certainly need to do a lot more than merely gathering a ragtag team of political hirelings and pass them off as defectors.
One of the ways to attain good results in any endeavour is to look back at things that had worked in the past, adopt the strategies that made such things work or improve on such strategies. You can't be speeding on a cul-de-sac and believe you are heading to somewhere. You are definitely running on a circle.
The first time since 1999 that an incumbent has been defeated in an election was in 2011, and we all know how that happened. It didn't just happen by a stroke of luck or by someone standing on the podium to boast about how he will defeat the incumbent or how no one can "steal my votes". It took a lot of technical, financial, spiritual and psychological investments to oust Ohakim by Rochas in 2011. For the benefit of those who didn't follow the politics closely at that time, let me give you a brief rundown of how that victory was planned and executed.
Firstly, Rochas was already a household name in Imo State and across Nigeria before 2011. He even declared that his contest for governorship was a condescension on his part. Rochas had solid structures on the ground; from his Rochas Foundation Colleges, to his Agenda 2015 organisation, to his Action Alliance political structure and the numerous people who were benefiting from his "philanthropic" gestures. Rochas also gave the impression that he was a multibillionaire. As at that time, he already ran for the presidency twice and made good impacts in the race, yet, winning the governorship wasn't a tea party for him.
Chief Ikedi Ohakim was a victim of some of the most caustic political blackmail ever seen in our politics. Most of these blackmail were allegedly bankrolled in the multiple billions of Naira by a powerful politician who is his kinsman. These political blackmail were less of the usual social media and newspaper things, but practical actions that did not only alienate that gentleman from the people, but it was primarily targeted at making him lose the support of the federal government. I heard a story of when a popular politician dressed some hirelings in the robes of bishops and top Christian clergy and chiefs and secured an appointment between them and the former President Goodluck Jonathan, where they specifically warned the President that any attempt to foist Ohakim on Imo people for a second term would lead to crisis. The same politician also allegedly sponsored billboards across Abuja, which denounced the Jonathan presidency. Everything was done to link Ohakim to the whirlpool of opposition against Jonathan continuing and completing Late Yar'Adua's tenure. No doubt, this achieved a lot of results. Even though the sponsor of these activities did not become the eventual ultimate beneficiary, but you cannot deny that this was very effective in at least, disconnecting Ohakim from the patronage of the presidency.
On the campaign ground, Owelle Rochas Okorocha enamoured himself to the people, to the point that people were throwing in their personal funds into his election campaign, instead of collecting money from him. Okorocha watered the groundswell of mass support he enjoyed from the people by performing many episodes of interesting but highly believable dramas across Imo State. If he is not leading prayer sessions in the market places, he would be drinking sachet water with street children and cleaning up with his bare hands the mucus running down the nostrils of some dirty looking children. Rochas effectively ignited a revolution in the State at the time that people were ready to throw in their lives to ensure he won the election. But, he would have still lost out woefully, if his opponent on the other side and himself did not succeed in ensuring that Ohakim became a kind of pariah before the presidency.
No one would believe that Chief Ohakim was the incumbent running on the platform of the Party that held power at the centre. Instead of the opposition been harassed by security agents, it was rather the supporters and operatives of the ruling Party that were the targets of police harassment and unfriendliness from other institutions.
At present, there is no opposition governorship candidate with either the clout of Ararume and Rochas or the public appeal of Owelle Rochas Okorocha. Fundamentally, there is no political party with the cultural undertone of APGA of 2011, or a Dim Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu to lead the campaign for the governorship election. In 2010/2011, it was a combination of Ezeigbo Gburugburu, Dim Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, Mr. Peter Obi, Chief Victor Umeh, Senator Chris Anyanwu, etc. Then, we had the financial muscles of Chief Ifeanyi Patrick Ubah of the Capital Oil fame, Arthur Eze N'Ukpor, Emeka Offor and many others, from within and outside Imo State and Igbo land. Ohakim contested that election not against Rochas, but against the principalities and powers that owned Nigeria.
While it was obvious that Ohakim was up against Rochas and APGA in that election, at least three months before the election, today, we have three purportedly strong opposition candidates, drawing at each others scrotum, while Governor Uzodimma consolidates on his base and even expands more on his chances, poaching key operatives in the opposition camp. I forgot to mention that in 2011, a sitting Senator defected from the ruling Party to join Rochas in a little known APGA. Commissioners and key operatives of the ruling Party were attending meetings and helping to strategise for Rochas' victory.
Elections are not won by mere wishes. Electioneering is a big business and you must sit down and plan things through, to the very end before you can win. While there is always an element of luck in elections like every other thing in life, luck plays very insignificant part in ensuring election success, and not in a situation where you are up against a Hope Uzodimma, who has mastered the art of our politics and electioneering. You will certainly need more than the luck of the Croatian Frane Selak , who is considered the luckiest man on earth.
MAY IMO WIN!
